FVXX21 KNES 291204
VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
ISSUED: 20061029/1204Z   VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-08
LOCATION: S0128 W07826   AREA: ECUADOR

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2006/670

INFORMATION SOURCE: GUAYAQUIL MWO. GOES-12. GFS
WINDS. 

ERUPTION DETAILS: ONGOING ASH EMISSIONS.

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 29/1115Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL300 10NM WIDE LINE BETWEEN
S0056 W07838 - S0128 W07826. ASH IS MOVING N 5-10
KNOTS. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: 29/1730Z SFC/FL300 10NM WIDE
LINE BETWEEN S0057 W07842 - S0129 W07826. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: 29/2330Z NOT AVBL.

FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: 30/0530Z NOT AVBL.

REMARKS: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
PLUME MOVING NORTH NW TO AN ESTIMATED FL300. 
HEIGHT IS BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED ASH SIGNATURE
IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY.  THE GFS MODELS SHOWS
NO INDICATION OF ASH HEADING NORTH.  ASH IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH +6
HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW.  A
+12 AND +18 HOUR FORECAST WAS NOT MADE DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS. ...KIBLER

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20061029/1800Z

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